Jack in the Box stock is entering a new chapter, with the Street nudging its fair value target slightly higher from about $19.89 to roughly $20.56 per share even as the discount rate holds steady at 12.5% and revenue expectations remain under pressure. The shift reflects a tug of war between optimism around the Del Taco exit and the Jack on Track plan, and caution over soft traffic trends and a tough quick service backdrop. Read on to see how this evolving analyst narrative could shape future price targets and how you can stay on top of the next round of updates.
Analyst Price Targets don’t always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value Jack in the Box.
🐂 Bullish Takeaways
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Oppenheimer remains constructive with an Outperform rating even after cutting its price target to $24 from $28, underscoring confidence that the standalone Jack in the Box business can still deliver 2026 EBITDA of $225M to $240M after the Del Taco sale.
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Bulls highlight that management has provided clearer 2026 guidance, which improves visibility into earnings power and suggests the Jack on Track plan could stabilize trends over time despite near term softness.
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Optimistic views still point to potential upside if execution on the turnaround and cost control improves, but note that much of the longer term recovery case may already be reflected in current valuation, limiting immediate rerating potential.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
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Across firms including Piper Sandler, TD Cowen, Goldman Sachs and Stifel, price targets have been reset lower into a tight $15 to $24 band, signaling a more muted outlook for upside in the equity.
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Goldman Sachs, which cut its target to $15 from $17 and keeps a Sell rating, cites weak comps, margin pressure from beef inflation and Chicago labor, and sees 2026 as a rebuilding year with a continued negative equity story.
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TD Cowen reduced its target to $16 from $21 and views guidance as ambitious, now modeling 2026 same store sales at −1%, highlighting concerns that execution on the Jack on Track plan will be challenged in the current quick service environment.
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Stifel lowered its target to $18 from $20 and, along with Piper Sandler cutting to $17 from $19, emphasizes that comps are likely to “remain challenged” near term, reinforcing worries that traffic softness could cap valuation and slow any growth re acceleration.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!
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Jack in the Box is kicking off a year long 75th anniversary celebration, bringing back the Chicken Supreme sandwich in multiple combo formats, rolling out limited edition Jibbi bag charms, and teasing a slate of nostalgic menu items and merch that will extend into 2026.
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The chain introduced a new value focused Munch Better Deals lineup, offering three structured meals starting at $7, including a Brunchie Meal, a Lunchie Meal, and a Gremlins themed Midnight Meal that pairs core menu items with limited edition collectibles.
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To deepen digital engagement, Jack in the Box launched DealQuest: Revenge of the Munchies, an in app Halloween promotion where guests progress through a choose your own adventure style game to unlock escalating food offers and enter sweepstakes for gaming themed prizes.
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Management outlined plans to keep the restaurant base roughly flat at 2,050 to 2,100 locations in 2026, balancing about 20 new openings against 50 to 100 mostly franchised closures. The company also agreed with investor GreenWood Investors to add two independent directors and create a Board level Capital Allocation Committee focused on tighter oversight of capital deployment.
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The consensus analyst price target has risen slightly, with fair value increasing from approximately $19.89 to about $20.56 per share.
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The discount rate is unchanged at 12.5%, indicating no shift in the assumed cost of capital or perceived risk profile.
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Revenue growth expectations remain effectively flat, holding around -7.61%, signaling a continued view of top line contraction in the near term.
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Net profit margin assumptions are essentially unchanged, staying near 7.46% and reflecting stable long term profitability expectations.
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Future P/E has risen modestly from roughly 6.24x to about 6.45x, implying slightly higher valuation multiples despite largely unchanged operating assumptions.
Narratives are an easier way to invest by connecting the story behind a company to the numbers that matter. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors use Narratives to link Jack in the Box’s strategy and risks to a forward looking forecast, a fair value, and clear valuation cues by comparing fair value to the current price. As news, earnings, and guidance change, these Narratives update dynamically so your view stays current.
Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Jack in the Box to stay up to date on the full turnaround story:
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How Chicago and Durham expansion and restaurant modernization could affect traffic, efficiency, and EBITDA recovery despite weak current sales.
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Why analysts currently expect earnings to reach $104.4m by 2028 with margins rising to 6.9% even as revenue is expected to shrink slightly.
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What would need to go right or wrong for JACK to justify its analyst fair value and how that compares with today’s price in real time.
Read the full Narrative here: JACK: Turnaround Plan Will Seek EBITDA Recovery Amid Ongoing Sales And Margin Pressures.
Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include JACK.
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