2025 Oil and Gas Industry Outlook

US Energy Information Administration, “Petroleum and other liquids oil spot prices,” accessed Nov. 22, 2024.

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Deloitte analysis of data sourced from S&P Capital IQ, accessed November 2024.

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Deloitte analysis of data sourced from S&P Capital IQ, accessed September 2024.

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Ibid.

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J.P. Morgan Global Research, “Following the Fed’s bold rate cut, what could its next move be?,” Nov. 19, 2024.

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Michael Blum et al., The Basin Book: Supply vs. Takeaway: Permian, Anadarko, Northeast, Bakken, Niobrara, Eagle Ford & W. Canada (The United States: Wells Fargo, 2018); Baker Hughes, “North America rig count,” accessed Nov. 22, 2024; Deloitte analysis based on data sourced from Enverus, accessed September 2024.

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Energy Institute, “2024 Statistical review of world energy,” accessed Nov. 22, 2024.

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US EIA, “Petroleum and other liquids oil spot prices”; US EIA, “Henry Hub natural gas spot price,” accessed September 2024.

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Andrew Baker, “North Dakota natural gas output outpacing oil as state ‘aggressively’ seeking takeaway solutions,” Natural Gas Intelligence, June 20, 2024.

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US EIA, “Short-term energy outlook data browser,” accessed September 2024.

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Blum et al., The Basin Book; Chris Newman, “Natural gas prices to hover around $2 this fall as output remains flat, EIA says,” Natural Gas Intelligence, Sept. 10, 2024.

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Newman, Natural gas prices to hover around $2 this fall as output remains flat, EIA says.”

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US EIA, “Natural gas pipeline capacity from the Permian Basin is set to increase,” Sept. 10, 2024.

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Ibid.

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Daniel Onyango, “Permian pipeline expansion on hold as producers shift focus to steady output,” Pipeline Technology Journal, Oct. 29, 2024.

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Electric Power Research Institute, “EPRI study: Data centers could consume up to 9% of US electricity generation by 2030,” press release, May 29, 2024; Alex Leif, “American natural gas needed for spread of data centers,” American Petroleum Institute, Sept. 9, 2024; Michael V. Grande, “Data centers: More gas will be needed to feed US growth,” S&P Global, Oct. 22, 2024.

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Deloitte analysis of data sourced from S&P Capital IQ, accessed September 2024; US EIA, “Petroleum and other liquids oil spot prices.”

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Lucia Kassai, “Permian, Bakken drilling rigs spur “record” U.S. oil production forecast on longer laterals,” World Oil, Aug. 29, 2024; US EIA, “Short-term energy outlook data browser”; US EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook: Global oil markets,” Nov. 13, 2024.

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Danny Boyd, “Diverse strategies characterize companies focusing on Williston Basin,” The American Oil and Gas Reporter, accessed Nov. 22, 2024.

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Jon Malone, “Produced water innovations can become scarcity game-changers,” The American Oil & Gas Reporter, accessed Nov. 22, 2024.

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Deloitte analysis based on data sourced from Enverus, accessed September 2024.

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Enverus, Upstream M&A Review, July 2024.

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Deloitte analysis based on data sourced from Enverus, accessed September 2024.

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Enverus, Upstream M&A Review, July 2024.

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Deloitte analysis of data sourced from S&P Capital IQ.

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Ibid.

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Deloitte analysis based on data sourced from Enverus, accessed September 2024.

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SLB, “SLB OneSubsea awarded contract by Equinor for groundbreaking all-electric subsea project,” press release, June 27, 2024.

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Deloitte analysis of earnings-call transcripts accessed from AlphaSense database, accessed September 2024; Yahoo Finance, “Q2 2024 Nov Inc earnings call,” July 27, 2024; Weatherford, “Weatherford announces third quarter 2022 results,” press release, October 2022.

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Baker Hughes, “Baker Hughes partners with NET Power to advance development and global deployment of zero-emissions power plants,” Feb. 22, 2022.

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SLB, “SLB achieves breakthrough results in sustainable lithium production,” press release, Sept. 10, 2024.

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SLB, “Schlumberger New Energy, the CEA and partners announce European Commission approval for the formation of Genvia, a clean hydrogen production technology venture,” press release, Jan. 11, 2021; Baker Hughes, “Air Products and Baker Hughes to collaborate on global hydrogen projects,” press release, June 9, 2021.

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Baker Hughes earnings call transcript, accessed via AlphaSense database.

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Will Feuer, “SLB to buy ChampionX in $7.8 billion oilfield services deal,” The Wall Street Journal, April 2, 2024.

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Nabors, “Nabors Industries announces agreement to acquire Parker Wellbore,” press release, Oct. 15, 2024.

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Deloitte analysis based on data sourced from Enverus, accessed September 2024.

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International Monetary Fund, “Middle East and Central Asia—Statistical appendix,” accessed Nov. 22, 2024.

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World Bank Group, “Economic diversification efforts paying off in GCC region but more reforms needed,” press release, Nov. 22, 2023.

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Deloitte analysis based on data sourced from S&P Capital IQ and Enverus, accessed September 2024; Ben Cahill, “Why Gulf national oil companies are investing in US LNG,” The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, July 25, 2024. 

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Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex Lawler, and Maha El Dahan, “OPEC+ extends deep oil production cuts into 2025,” Reuters, June 3, 2024.

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Ibid.

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ADNOC, “Responsible growth,” accessed Nov. 22, 2024.

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Marwa Rashad, “Exclusive: Saudi Aramco, UAE’s ADNOC in talks to invest in US LNG projects, sources say,” Reuters, March 6, 2024; Aramco Digital, “Saudi Aramco president and CEO Amin Nasser launches Aramco Digital, a new initiative in digital transformation,” press release, Jan. 30, 2024; Charlotte Trueman, “Aramco Digital announces partnerships to boost AI and wireless technologies in Saudi Arabia,” Data Center Dynamics, Sept. 14, 2024.

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ADNOC, “$500 million in value generated by ADNOC through deployment of AI Solutions in 2023,” press release, March 5, 2024.

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The Government of the United Arab Emirates, “National hydrogen strategy,” accessed Nov. 22, 2024; International Energy Agency, “World energy outlook 2024,” accessed Nov. 22, 2024.

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Heba Hashem, “Region’s green hydrogen obsession here to stay,” Breakbulk Magazine, no. 1 (2024).

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Can Cao, “The energy transition in the Middle East: Navigating through change,” The Georgetown Environmental Law Review, April 4, 2024.

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COP28, “President calls on all stakeholders to bring spirit of solidarity that delivered UAE Consensus to drive implementation and sustainable socio-economic development,” accessed Nov. 22, 2024. 

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Matt Smith, “PIF top spender among sovereign funds in 2023,” Arabian Gulf Business Insight, Jan. 1, 2024.

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Projections under the stated policies scenario sourced from: IEA, “World energy outlook 2024.”

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Goldman Sachs, “Peak oil demand is still a decade away,” June 17, 2024.

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US EIA, “US biodiesel imports have doubled since 2022 due to low prices in Europe,” May 28, 2024; US EIA, “Market prices for renewable fuel standard credits are falling,” Oct. 24, 2023; Phillip Herring, Melvin Lee, Sofia Cabrera, and Guadalupe Nunez, “US renewable identification numbers complex collapses in 2023/24, driven by oversupplied biomass-based diesel market,” S&P Global, Feb. 1, 2024.

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US Environmental Protection Agency, “RIN trades and price information,” accessed Nov. 22, 2024.

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IEA, “Global EV outlook 2024,” accessed Nov. 22, 2024; Jaan Juurikas, “Global EV sales report H1 2024 by EV Universe,” The EV Universe, Aug. 28, 2024.

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Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, “OPEC monthly oil market report,” accessed Nov. 22, 2024.

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Reliance Industries, Q2 2Q FY25 Financial Results Presentation, page 50, October 2024.

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Deloitte analysis of data sourced from S&P Capital IQ, accessed September 2024.

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Alan Gelder, Emma Mitchell, and Avanpal Sehmi Singh, “Assessing the refineries at risk of closure,” Wood Mackenzie, March 11, 2024; Charles Kennedy, “Over 20% of the world’s oil refining capacity is at risk of closure,” Oil Price, March 28, 2024.

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Chevron Corporation, “Corteva agriscience, Bunge and Chevron announce collaboration to produce winter canola to meet growing demand for lower carbon renewable fuels,” press release, accessed Nov. 22, 2024; Marathon Petroleum Corporation, ADM, Marathon Petroleum Corp. take next step in meeting demand for renewable fuels as Green Bison Production Facility begins operations,” press release, accessed Nov. 22, 2023.

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Mark Segal, “UK Government confirms 2% sustainable aviation fuel requirement beginning 2025,” ESG Today, July 24, 2024.

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Shell, “The Shell app,” accessed Nov. 22, 2024; BP, “Pay for fuel and earn rewards with the BPme app,” accessed Nov. 22, 2024.

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American Express, “The continual change of digital payments,” accessed Nov. 22, 2024.

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Shell, “The Shell app”; Rachel Gignac, “Shell launches mobile payment option,” CSP, May 8, 2024; TechHQ, “How private companies are using facial recognition tech,” June 8, 2020.

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Shell, “SHEL.L: Shell—Visit to full EV charging hub—good coffee and some helpful KPIs,” AlphaSense, Oct. 5, 2022.

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The Brookings Institution, “The 2024 US presidential election and the future of multilateralism,” Sept. 24, 2024.

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Donaldjtrump.com, “Agenda47: America must have the #1 lowest cost energy and electricity on Earth,” Sept. 7, 2023.

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Simon Flowers, “A second Trump administration,” Wood Mackenzie, Nov. 7, 2024.

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Ibid.

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Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, “Donald Trump’s proposal to lower the corporate tax rate to 15%,” September 2024.

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European Commission, “Commission adopts guidance to EU countries on implementing the revised directives on renewable energy and on energy efficiency,” Sept. 2, 2024.

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European Council, “Renewable energy: Council adopts new rules,” press release, Oct. 9, 2023.

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European Commission, “Commission adopts guidance to EU countries on implementing the revised directives on renewable energy and on energy efficiency,” press release, Sept. 2, 2024; European Council, “RefuelEU aviation initiative: Council adopts new law to decarbonise the aviation sector,” press release, Oct. 9, 2023; Segal, “UK Government confirms 2% sustainable aviation fuel requirement beginning 2025.”

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Cristina Enache, “What European countries are doing about oil and gas windfall profits taxes,” Tax Foundation, Sept. 10, 2024.

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Reuters, “EU votes in favour of hefty tariffs on China-made EV imports,” Oct. 4, 2024.

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US EIA, “Diesel consumption falls in China due to reduced economic activity and fuel substitution,” Aug. 15, 2024.

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Wood Mackenzie, “China economic focus July 2024: Takeaways from the third plenum,” July 30, 2024.

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REGlobal, “China could surpass a 50% EV sales share by 2025: IEA,” April 29, 2024; Daniel Ren, “China doubles cash subsidies to propel EV sales as economic growth falls short,” SCMP, July 25, 2024; Daniel Ren, “China’s EV subsidy boosts ‘golden week’ sales amid rush before incentives’ expiry,” SCMP, Oct. 7, 2024.

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Deloitte, “Economics of energy transition,” September 2024, p. 9. 

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Deloitte, “Economics of energy transition,” September 2024, p. 8.

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IEA, “Coal Mid-Year Update—July 2024: Demand,” accessed Nov. 22, 2024.

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Ember and Energy Institute, “Share of electricity generated by renewables,” Our World In Data, June 20, 2024.

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Tomás de Oliveira Bredariol, “Brazil’s opportunity to lead the global dialogue on energy and climate,” IEA, July 18, 2024.

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Ibid.

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Fitch Ratings, “Higher geopolitical risk premium in oil price partly offsetting market weakness,” Oct. 10, 2024.

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Fitch Solutions, “Oil & gas global capex outlook,” accessed Nov. 22, 2024.

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