A new president, an already strong economy and lots of innovation sparked by artificial intelligence: Against this backdrop, Wall Street strategists and others are making predictions about how the economy and personal finance issues could change in the coming year.
Here are some of those forecasts:
Tariffs could create a lot of uncertainty
President-elect Trump has opened a potential Pandora’s box with his recent vows to slap big tariffs on many foreign imports — not just on Chinese goods but on those from Mexico, Canada and elsewhere.
It remains to be seen how forcefully the new administration will pursue tariffs, which have the potential to trigger a 1930s-style global trade war or, alternatively, might extract concessions from trading partners.
“Tariffs in particular have the potential to disrupt trade, reduce domestic U.S. demand and increase inflation,” investment firm UBS said in a recent commentary. “At the same time, negotiations with trading partners or domestic legal challenges might mitigate their scope and impact.”
Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, takes a reasonably optimistic view, especially on how tariff tensions might spill over into the stock market.
He assigns a 50% probability that the stock market could gain ground in 2025 despite what happens with tariffs, a 25% probability that stocks could surge for other reasons such as artificial-intelligence optimism, a 15% probability of a downside tariff shock and a 10% chance that stocks could fall sharply but mainly for other reasons.
The housing shortage might not ease by much
Lower mortgage rates might help make homes more affordable to new buyers, but not by much anytime soon, predicts J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Demand still exceeds current supply, with the company estimating the shortage of new homes at between 2 million and 2.5 million units nationally.
Affordability varies by region and is affected by local prices, incomes and other conditions.
For example, homes in Cleveland and Detroit are already generally affordable for buyers able to make a 20% down payment, according to J.P. Morgan. The bank predicts affordability will come in 2026 in Minneapolis; in 2027 in Austin, Washington, D.C., Charlotte and San Francisco; in 2028 in Boston and Portland; and in 2029 in Atlanta, San Diego, Dallas and New York.
The forecast calls for affordability to be restored by 2030 in Phoenix, Seattle, Denver and Tampa; in 2031 for Las Vegas; and in 2032 for Los Angeles, but not until 2035 for Miami.
These scenarios assume no changes in mortgage interest rates. But if rates fall by one percentage point, affordability will come about a year sooner in most of those places, J.P. Morgan estimated.
Tax negotiations could deliver surprises
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which was enacted during president-elect Trump’s first term, is destined to expire at the end of 2025, which would bring back prior rules and generally higher marginal tax rates for individuals.
Trump, backed by Republican majorities in Congress, will move to extend the legislation generally, especially as it relates to keeping tax rates and brackets at current, lower levels.
However, there are several areas where Trump and the Republicans might not get everything they want, or change their priorities. For example, the legislation generally curtailed some of the mortgage-interest deductions for upscale taxpayers. It also limited SALT, or state and local tax deductions, to $10,000 per household generally.
“Given the tight margins in the House and the Senate, it may require some compromise around areas such as the state and local tax-deduction cap,” J.P. Morgan said.
Electricity will emerge as a growth industry
Many businesses are flush with cash and will invest much of it into new technologies such as artificial intelligence. However, J.P. Morgan Chase also sees a growth surge ahead in a less flashy industry: the power sector.
Catalysts include the reshoring of U.S. manufacturing, the increased use of electrification in vehicles and surging demand for data centers, which store email messages, computer files, databases, customer accounts and much more.
Data centers are an especially important trend, growing at a roughly 25% annual pace globally, and they consume vast amounts of electricity — often the equivalent of that used by a small city.
While solar and other green fuel sources are on the upswing, J.P. Morgan expects that more power will come from nuclear generation. As an example, the company cited Microsoft’s role in restarting the accident-scarred Three Mile Island nuclear plant to supply energy to its data centers.
Also, the bank predicts small nuclear reactors could become more widespread, and natural gas plants will remain in the mix. These facilities can be fired up quickly to meet peak demand when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing.
Scams will become more sophisticated and dangerous
Consumers will need to remain vigilant about financial crimes, especially since crooks have more tools to defraud people.
The latest warning comes from Authority Hacker, a company that helps small businesses with online marketing strategies. It found that artificial intelligence scams doubled over the past year, resulting in $108 million in reported losses to victims. Those numbers come from a FOIA or Freedom of Information Act request the company made seeking AI crime data from the Federal Trade Commission.
One big new threat involves artificial intelligence scams that use fake images, texts, videos or other messages, often by impersonating a celebrity, politician, family member or friend in hopes of separating a victim from his or her money.
“As these scams become more sophisticated, they are harder to detect,” warned Mark Webster, co-founder of Authority Hacker. “Verifying unusual requests through trusted channels is vital.”
If you are asked to send money or share sensitive information such as that relating to investment accounts, you should verify as much as you can by contacting the person who supposedly is making the request, he said.
It also helps to establish some pre-arranged “safe words” with friends and family members that can confirm identities in a pinch.
Reach the reporter at russ.wiles@arizonarepublic.com.
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