Technology, Market Analysis, and Forecasts: IDTechEx

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1. Report Summary and Key Takeaways 1.2. Automation Levels (L0 to L5) Overview 1.3. Summary of Privately Owned Autonomous Vehicles 1.4. Level 2+ Solidifying in Definition, Availability, and Legislation 1.5. Biggest Barriers move onto L3 or L4 – Liability 1.6. Level 2+ could be a long-term middle-ground 1.7. Overview of where autonomous cars are legal 1.8. Adoption of Key ADAS Features Increased Again in 2023 1.9. Year-On-Year Increase in SAE Level 2 Adoption 1.10. High Levels of Autonomy Means More Sensors per Vehicle 1.11. LiDAR is for Level 3 and the Chinese Market 1.12. Autonomy is Changing the Automotive Supply Chain 1.13. L2+ Passenger vehicle market supply chain overview 1.14. Rapid Growth in China’s Urban L2+ Market Drives ADAS Supplier Sales Surge 1.15. China L2+ / NOA Solution Providers/Suppliers 1.16. End-to-End (E2E) Architecture 1.17. Deployment of End-to-End Models in Vehicles 1.18. EU Market Summary: L2 Dominates, L2+ and L3 in Exploration Phase – Limited Impact on Consumer Choice 1.19. China Market Summary: L2+ Emerges as Key Purchase Driver, Supply Chain Advantages Drive Competitive Edge 1.20. US Market Summary: Strong L2 ADAS Foundation, High Potential for L2+/L3 Growth 1.21. Autonomous Vehicle Adoption in US 2022-2045 1.22. Autonomous Vehicle Adoption in China 2022-2044 1.23. Autonomous Vehicle Adoption in EU + UK + EFTA 2022-2044 1.24. Autonomous Vehicle Adoption in Japan 2022-2044 1.25. L2+/L3 Feature Adoption Forecast by Region 1.26. Global Vehicle Sales and Peak Car by SAE Level 2022-2045 1.27. Parking Assist Features Adoption Forecast 2. INTRODUCTION 2.1. Level 2, Level 2+, and Level 3 2.2. L3-Level Passenger Vehicles Approved for Road Use 2.3. The Automation Levels in Detail 2.4. Roadmap of Autonomous Driving Functions in Private Cars 2.5. L2 and L2+ Autonomous Driving Systems and Brands 2.6. L3-Level Passenger Vehicles Approved for Testing and on road 2.7. IDTechEx’s ADAS Feature Database 3. SUMMARY OF ADAS TECHNOLOGIES 3.1. Introduction 3.1.1. Automation Levels (L0 to L5) Overview 3.1.2. Summary of Privately Owned Autonomous Vehicles 3.1.3. Level 2+ Solidifying in Definition, Availability, and Legislation 3.1.4. Biggest Barriers move onto L3 or L4 – Liability 3.1.5. Level 2+ could be a long-term middle-ground 3.2. ADAS Features 3.2.1. Overview of Safety and Luxury ADAS Features in L0-L2 Passenger Vehicles 3.2.2. Overview of ADAS Features in L0-L3 Passenger Vehicles 3.2.3. Safety ADAS Features – AEB 3.2.4. Luxury ADAS Features-CC/ACC 3.2.5. ADAS Features-LDW/LKA/LCA 3.2.6. Safety ADAS Features- BSM/BSD 3.2.7. Safety ADAS Features- Signal Recognition 3.2.8. Safety ADAS Features- Rear/360 Parking 3.2.9. Luxury ADAS Features – Auto Parking 4. ADAS AUTOMATION TRENDS AND REGULATIONS 4.1. Legislation and Autonomy 4.2. US 4.3. Level 3, Legislation, US 4.4. UK 4.5. EU 4.6. Level 2+ starting to grow in Europe 4.7. Level 3 outlook in Europe 4.8. Asia-Pacific (China) – Testing Scale Expands, Regulatory Framework Deepens 4.9. Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen Accelerate Deployment of L3 and L4 Autonomous Driving 4.10. Asia-Pacific (Japan) 4.11. Clarifying Responsibility Types and Assumption in Global Legislation 4.12. More Comprehensive Regulatory Frameworks are Being Established Globally 5. ADAS CARS MARKET ANALYSIS 5.1. Passenger ADAS Vehicle Market readiness 5.1.1. ADAS Adoption by Region in 2023 5.1.2. ADAS Feature Deployment in US 5.1.3. ADAS Feature Deployment in China 5.1.4. ADAS Feature Deployment in EU 5.1.5. ADAS Feature Deployment in Japan 5.1.6. China ADAS Ecosystem: SoC Manufacturers and Solution Providers 5.1.7. China L2+ / NOA Solution Providers/Suppliers 5.1.8. Chinese OEMs – L2+ / NOA development timeline 5.1.9. Chinese OEMs – L2+ / NOA development 5.1.10. US Autonomous Passenger Vehicle Rankings 5.1.11. Main OEMs – L2+ / NOA development 5.1.12. Comparison of Multi-Sensor and Pure Vision Solutions 5.1.13. Chinese OEMs – Analysis of Sensor Configurations for NOA 5.1.14. End-to-End (E2E) Architecture 5.1.15. Deployment of End-to-End Models in Vehicles 5.1.16. China’s Top 4 LiDAR Manufacturers Dominate its 2024 Market 5.1.17. ADAS Tier 1 suppliers are facing unprecedented challenges 5.1.18. ADAS Tier 1 Product List 2025 5.2. ADAS Solution Providers 5.2.1. Baidu Apollo 5.2.2. Momenta 5.2.3. Horizon Robotics 5.2.4. DJI Automotive (Zhuoyu) 5.2.5. BOSCH 5.2.6. Huawei 5.2.7. Mobileye 5.2.8. Qcraft 5.3. Soc Manufactures 5.3.1. Competitive Landscape of ADS SoC Chips 5.3.2. Competitive Landscape of ADS SoC Chips – Case study 5.3.3. Three major SoC manufacturers – Nvidia 5.3.4. Three major SoC manufacturers – Mobileye 5.3.5. Three major SoC manufacturers – Horizon Robotics 5.3.6. Low-performance Soc Chips 5.3.7. Mid-performance Soc Chips 5.3.8. High-performance Soc Chips 5.3.9. High-performance Soc Chips – Performance Evolution of SoC Chips 5.3.10. Typical Models features Urban NOA / L2+ Functionality 5.4. Sensor Suite for ADAS Cars 5.4.1. Sensor Suite Disclaimer 5.4.2. Evolution of Sensor Suite From Level 1 to Level 4 5.4.3. Sensors and their Purpose 5.4.4. Evolution of Sensor Suites from Level 1 to Level 4 5.4.5. Typical Sensor Suite for ADAS Passenger Cars – Camera and Radar 5.4.6. Integrated Front-view Cameras 5.4.7. Integrated Front-view Cameras: Regulations are accelerating 5.4.8. List of Integrated Front-view Camera Suppliers: Performance Gradually Improving to Meet L2+ Capabilities (1) 5.4.9. List of Integrated Front-view Camera Suppliers: Performance Gradually Improving to Meet L2+ Capabilities (2) 5.4.10. Front Radar Applications 5.4.11. The Role of Side Radars 5.4.12. Front and Side Radars per Car 5.4.13. Total Radars per Car for Different SAE levels 5.4.14. External Cameras for Autonomous Driving 5.4.15. LiDAR Deployment 5.4.16. Automotive lidar players by technology 5.5. Key OEMs in the L2, L2+,L2++ Navigation on Autopilot (NOA) race 5.5.1. Nissan 5.5.2. Nissan Propilot 2.1 5.5.3. Honda 5.5.4. Honda Sensing 360+ sensor suite 5.5.5. Stellantis 5.5.6. Mercedes S-Class and EQS 5.5.7. Mercedes S-class – Sensor Suite 5.5.8. Daimler/Bosch Autonomous Parking 5.5.9. BMW level 3 and level 2+ 5.5.10. BMW 7 Series and 5 Series Sensors 5.5.11. Tesla 5.5.12. Tesla’s Hardware 4.0 5.5.13. Algorithm Side: Tesla Adopts End-to-End Large Model 5.5.14. GM’s Super Cruise 5.5.15. Vehicles with GM Super Cruise 5.5.16. Ford BlueCruise 5.5.17. Toyota and Lexus 5.5.18. Chinese OEMs – AITO (Huawei) 5.5.19. Chinese OEMs – Xpeng 5.5.20. Chinese OEMs – NIO 5.5.21. Chinese OEMs – Avata (Huawei ADS) 5.5.22. Chinese OEMs – Arcfox (Huawei ADS) 5.5.23. Chinese OEMs – Lotus 5.5.24. Chinese OEMs – Xiaomi 5.5.25. Chinese OEMs – Li Auto 5.5.26. Chinese OEMs – Zeekr 5.6. Cost Structure and Business Model Analysis 5.6.1. Cost Structure for Major Manufacturers 5.6.2. Leaders 5.6.3. Cost Structure for Major Manufacturers – Case Study on Chinese OEMs 5.6.4. Cost Structure for Major Manufacturers 5.6.5. Comparative Analysis of Cloud Computational Power 5.6.6. ADAS Feature Sales Model 5.6.7. Sales Volume and Break-even Point Case Study 5.6.8. Sales Volume and Break-even Point Calculation 5.6.9. ADAS Feature Sales Model 6. ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES: LIDAR, RADAR, CAMERAS, INFRARED, HD MAPPING, TELEOPERATION, 5G AND V2X 6.1. Introduction 6.1.1. Connected vehicles 6.1.2. Localization 6.1.3. AI and Training 6.1.4. Teleoperation 6.1.5. Cyber security 6.2. Autonomous Vehicle Sensors 6.2.1. Autonomous driving technologies 6.2.2. The Primary Three Sensors – Cameras, Radar, and LiDAR 6.2.3. Sensor Performance and Trends 6.2.4. Robustness to Adverse Weather 6.2.5. Evolution of Sensor Suite From Level 1 to Level 4 6.2.6. What is Sensor Fusion? 6.2.7. Autonomous Driving Requires Different Validation System 6.2.8. Sensor Fusion Technology Trends for Applications 6.2.9. Hybrid AI for Sensor Fusion 6.2.10. Autonomy and Electric Vehicles 6.2.11. EV Range Reduction 6.2.12. The Vulnerable Road User Challenge in City Traffic 6.2.13. Pedestrian Risk Detection 6.2.14. Recommended Sensor Suites For SAE Level 2 to Level 4 & Robotaxi 6.2.15. Cameras 6.2.16. IR Cameras 6.2.17. Radar 6.2.18. LiDAR 6.2.19. Mapping and Localization 6.3. Connected Cars 6.3.1. What is a Connected Vehicle? 6.3.2. Why V2X 6.3.3. Connected Cars: Technologies 6.3.4. Connected Cars: Use Cases and Case Studies 7. FORECASTS: ADAS MARKET TRENDS AND GROWTH PROJECTIONS 7.1. Forecasting Methodology: Private Cars Feature Adoption 7.2. L2+/L3 Feature Adoption Forecast by Region 7.3. ADAS Feature Adoption Forecast by Region – US 7.4. ADAS Feature Adoption Forecast by Region – China 7.5. ADAS Feature Adoption Forecast by Region – EU 7.6. ADAS Feature Adoption Forecast by Region – Japan 7.7. Global Vehicle Sales and Peak Car by SAE Level 2022-2045 7.8. Autonomous Vehicle Adoption in US 2022-2045 7.9. ADAS Feature Sales by Region- US 7.10. Autonomous Vehicle Adoption in China 2022-2044 7.11. ADAS Feature Sales by Region- China 7.12. Autonomous Vehicle Adoption in EU + UK + EFTA 2022-2044 7.13. ADAS Feature Sales by Region – EU + UK + EFTA 7.14. Autonomous Vehicle Adoption in Japan 2022-2044 7.15. ADAS Feature Sales by Region- Japan 7.16. High level ADAS Feature Forecast – US 7.17. ADAS Feature Sales Revenue by Region- US 7.18. ADAS Feature Sales Revenue by Region – China 7.19. ADAS Feature Sales Revenue by Region- EU + UK + EFTA 7.20. ADAS Feature Sales Revenue by Region- Japan 7.21. Parking Assist Features Adoption Forecast 8. COMPANY PROFILES